In the recently concluded by 2018 China's electric power development planning as well as the forum, China Guodian Group Deputy General Manager Xie Changjun on the future of China's renewable energy development trend is analyzed in depth.
Chinese government put forward that in 2020, the total electricity consumption in non - hydroelectric renewable energy electric quantity indicator for the proportion reaches 9% in 2017, wind power and photovoltaic power generation, only generation of 6. 5%, the target distance is still great developing space.The relevant plans, from 2016 to 2020, China's wind production 7900 kw in 2020 will reach 2 million kilowatts, of which 500 million kilowatts offshore wind power, solar power production increased more than 68 gigawatts in 2020 will reach 1 million kilowatts or more.
It will thus be seen that, in future, have restrictions on coal use, support for renewable energy development policies will not change; and there is a restriction of the total hydropower resources, the development cost rising, future growth is limited; the construction of nuclear power is subject to an overall social atmosphere, is also uncertain; the biomass, tidal,Since the power generation, geothermal, etc., in the form of resource, cost, technology limitations, and so on various reason, the development scale is also not large; Comprehensive various factors, wind power and photovoltaic power that can be expected to be a low - carbon development and energy transformation of J.D. Power and Associates.
wind power development and pay more attention to the scale and benefit
Over the past few years, overcapacity in electricity, power grid development speed are not matched as the situation worsened resulting in brownouts, hinder the healthy development of China's renewable energy is the biggest bottleneck.In 2017, the country abandoned water 550 billion kilowatt - hours, kilowatt - hours of wind curtailment 419, the abandoned light 73 billion kilowatt - hours, exceeding the total amount of 1000 kwh.
Facing the problem of electricity generation, wind power investors are more rational, slowing its progress, and began to attach great importance to the development speed scale to paying attention to the development quality and efficiency.2017, grid - connected wind capacity of 15 gigawatts, nearly five years.In the next three years, China's wind power market will maintain rational growth of scale, the average annual increase of onshore wind power 15 ~ 18 gigawatts, the annual increase of around 1 gigawatt of offshore wind power, in consideration of the incremental scale and stock benefits.
wind power, photovoltaic absorptive, will greatly improve the environment
The National Energy Administration, in 2020, "Three - north Region dumping, abandonment rate is controlled within 5%, the rest are on the ground and no restrictions on the use of electricity.State Grid in January 2017 conference, clearly aims to 2017 - 2018 wind curtailment light waste considered contradictions eased in 2020 to fundamentally address the problem of new disposal, dumping waste light between 5 percent and 20 items of proposed energy - consumptive.
PV will be the first to achieve affordable Internet access
Thanks to state - of - the - art manufacturing equipment, as well as the 10 years to photovoltaic project price is reduced by 90%.Photovoltaic electricity annually in the beginning of the year, the concentrated photovoltaic has decreased to 0. 50 ~ 0. 70 yuan / kwh, then the distributed photovoltaic 0.32 yuan / kwh.In March, the third installment of the photovoltaic base - runner 8 projects with the lowest bid price and standard power price of local on - grid price for desulfurization coal fired only a difference of 3. 6 ~ 12. 5 cents / kWh.Compared with photovoltaic power generation, wind power development costs so quickly with the lowering speed, the wind turbine achieve affordable online will experience a relatively slow process.
Offshore wind power began to enter the scale development stage
Future 2 ~ 3 years, China will usher in a period of fast development of offshore wind power, the apparent acceleration of the development process.
At present, several coastal provinces had announced the 13th Five - Year Plan and offshore wind power development programme.Wherein, in Jiangsu province plans to launch an offshore wind power by 2020 is 3.5 gigawatts; Fujian planning and construction of offshore wind, which is 13. 3 gigawatts in 2020, the commissioning of 2 gigawatts; planning of Guangdong Province has led to the construction of offshore wind power 12 gigawatts, more than 2 gigawatts.To the end of 2020, it is estimated that China's offshore wind capacity will exceed 5 watts.
Future battlegrounds of offshore wind by 10 km of the shore in the intertidal zone to 30 ~ 40 km of coastal waters; by Jiangsu coastal extended to Fujian, Zhejiang, Hainan, Shandong, Hebei and other provinces.Future offshore wind projects by 50 ~ 150MW of small - scale experiments and demonstrations to the more than 300MW of scaled land development.offshore wind turbine generator 2. 5 ~ 4 MW fan is the main model; new units over the next three years will still be 4 ~ 5MW; after 2020 and 5 ~ 6MW unit technology will gradually mature,And become the mainstay; of the order of 8 or more and started making the prototype test; MW unit still retained a certain market space.Large diameter single pile will still be the mainstream of inter - tidal and offshore wind power construction technique; in 2025, china will gradually begin to explore the deep sea wind power development, during which the buoyant foundation will be the emphases of research.The technology advancement is the construction of offshore wind power costs, decreased space in china at a time of offshore wind power in the kilowatt cost 16,000 to 20,000 yuan, well below the European offshore project of 3000 ~ 4000 euro contract (21900 ~ RMB 292,000 Yuan).
wind turbine technology will develop a broader market space
The next five years, with the wind turbine manufacturing industry upgrading, onshore wind machines will be mainstream in higher efficiency of 2 ~ 3MW and above the wind turbine.The fan consists of middle and small capacity on a large, intelligent development becomes inevitable.In the plain of low wind shear areas, by lifting the tower height (from 80 meters to 120 meters or feet (140 meters), wind speed may be increased by 0. 5 ~ 0. 8m / s, the application of China's advanced stage of 3MW, 140 meters large blade machines, average annual utilization hours by 2000 hours increased to 2500 hours or more,Dividend for the wind power industry technology will lead to a broader development space.
reconstruction of old to the new generation spawned the growth of wind power market opportunities
European wind farm operators generally in the running for a decade and began to consider moving the equipment in the "on".China's early commissioning nearly 1.3 gigawatts of wind - power project in 2020 will reach or approach the lifecycle; by the end of 2010 that entered production prior to the 40 - watt Dorjee project, in the five years beyond 2020 will gradually replace the peak, the market space is vast.With a large - capacity, high efficiency technologies continues to progress, the new units are more profitable, will become the new profit growth point for operators.
At the same time, also would force a third - party maintenance market, professional operation and maintenance of the Company will usher in important business opportunities.
environmentally friendly wind power development focus will return to the "sanber" regions
At present, severe curtailment of the "Three Norths" areas, as a part of a gradual improvement, will usher in a more rational and healthy development of the environment.Power grid planning and construction of UHV transmission project spanned ten years intensive production, wind power is provided to dissolve or be spanned the technical conditions.After the implementation of a formal quota system, interregional flows will become the "Elimination" sanber "regions of the main ways of wind power by 2020, wind curtailment of electricity situation will be greatly improved.Large blade unit technology breaks with tradition and IEC wind farm grading standard, by optimizing control strategy to improve the unit load, the "Three Norths" areas with high wind speeds can also be applied so that the blade unit, by which time wind power project of economic benefits will be more considerable.It is foreseeable that between 2020 and 2025, with the land resources, environmental protection, northern brownouts environment improvement and other factors, China's wind development in the battlegrounds in the east, south to return to the "Three Norths" areas.
In China with good vegetation cover in the east, the southern region, the portion of the wind farm and little attention was paid to soil conservation and vegetation recovery, has a certain extent of ecological damage.The environmental problems of wind power development has aroused on the part of the government, have individual provinces were temporarily suspended in developing wind power.In the future, the central government on the project of ecological and environmental protection requirements will be so strict that, at the same time, the completion acceptance of environmental protection administration for examination and approval of project change units by itself, accept social supervision, the Employer will bear a greater share of environmental risks and liabilities.In order to reduce the risk of self - development, the developers will also pay more attention to environmental protection and vegetation recovery, its benefit and environmental benefit co - growth.