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China's energy into the development of the drivers of the change over period

China's energy into the development of the drivers of the change over period

2018/10/11 09:21
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On 18 September afternoon, the national high - end think tank construction pilot CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute in 2018 version "of the world in the year 2050 China Energy Outlook" (hereinafter referred to as" energy outlook "), officially launched in Beijing.The report points out that China's energy development has entered a new historical period, new and old continuous conversion of the kinetic energy; in the end demand, energy consumption in the center of gravity away from the side turned to the domestic consumer side; at the supply end, clean energy will satisfy new energy demand and the gradual replacement of traditional carbon energy.China's primary energy demand in 2035 - 2040 time frame will enter the peak period of the platform, and to optimize the structure of energy, coal, oil and gas and non - fossil energy will be gradually dominated the competition, and it's an energy - related carbon dioxide emissions would peak by 2030.


CNPC deputy general manager of product planning and plan for the Zhang first pointed out in his speech, the energy transformation trend of the times and the overall direction is more clean, more low - carbon, and it is more convenient and lower cost.To realize the transition of more than one path, but achieving the equivalent effect of environmental protection and convenience, lower cost is at its core.Prospects for the future possible scenarios are judged, by the Institute is devoted to the perspectives of energy transition, take full account of the exploration and exploitation as well as transformation and technological progress for energy transformation.China in the world energy consumption and production plays a very important role in China's energy consumption growth and structural change on the world's energy development trajectory.


CNPC Economics and Technology, deputy dean of Jiang Xue, an officer in the country as a high - end think tank construction pilot and Petro China soft science research departments, Economics and Technology Research Institute in the years and continues to carry out the sustainable development research, from 2016 began publishing "China and the world energy outlookIn three years at home and abroad, which is widely paid attention to, and each year the hospital at the start of each of the publication of "domestic and international oil and gas industry development report" The Echoing, analysis, judgment and energy development situation at home and abroad, is a focus on energy the development all study reference.


He also pointed out that, in the next period, are in charge of green energy to the transformation of the transitional period, to adapt to the new era in our country economic development to the quality requirements, energy development and open the door to enter the old drivers, and the center of gravity of the energy consumption by primary energy for production to meet the demand for more domestic consumption, improve the living standards of the transition,Meet all the needs of the people's life, the terminal can also use the department has been increasingly turning to higher - quality energy in the energy supply, technology progress is impelling the development of clean energy and clean and efficient use of traditional energy, clean energy will satisfy new energy demand and the traditional high - carbon energy forms.Hopes of an economic institute of technology in this report can provide the industry with a framework of thinking, scientific outlook on development in the course of those uncertainties, the efforts to seek the certainty of the trend.


Conference, the CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute in petroleum engineer Wang, the director of the Institute on behalf of the research team Dr. Li Ning shared the main results.He said that this year's report, the baseline situation and policy initiatives are strengthened exhibits the history of the world and China's energy potential in the development process, different scenarios depending on the result of the socio - economic development mode, technical reform, energy policy and how to establish the extent to which the functions and the like.The current global still has a billion people have no access to electricity, the urgent need to eliminate energy poverty and improve quality of life, industrialization, urbanization and the rapid development of world energy growth is the new engine.Global Energy pluralistic, clean, low - carbon, safe, efficient and intelligent development of features.With the transformation and upgrading of the consumption and living standards of the people, that is, all the energy - supply security and stability, price reasonable, ecological environmental protection of the friendship will become more demanding.This will help our country energy system and constantly improve the quality and efficiency.The research suggests the energy intensity to decline steadily, per capita energy consumption is increasing, due to continuous optimization of energy structure, China's primary energy mix in 2050 are basically coal, oil and gas and non - fossil energy has come into being.


The National Energy Administration Zhang Yuqing, former deputy director, National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation of the original Li Junfeng, director of the State Grid Energy Research Institute vice president Jiang Liping, China Petrochemical Economic and Technology, deputy dean of Jiao Yu and the China Petroleum Planning, Deputy Chief Economist Zhu Shan Xing reports exciting developments.


"China and the World Energy Outlook is at the core of the judgment:


The world energy in the reference scenario would appear


1. Due to the economic and population growth, by 2050 the world primary energy demand will continue to grow, reaching 182 million tons of oil equivalent, growing by 0.9%.


2. to accelerate the diversification of world energy, low - carbon economy to low - carbon economy in 2050, clean energy accounted for a total of 54 percent.


3. The oil as the main transportation fuel and chemical raw materials, the future will continue to grow, but the gradual slowdown after 2035 and will enter the peak period of the platform (51 tons).


4. Natural gas is a clean and low carbon, resource - rich, and is easy to use feature, the energy transition, which plays an important role in its continued growth in demand in 2050, up to 5 cubic metres, the average annual growth rate of 1. 3%.


5. the Middle East and North America will be the future supplies of oil, both crude oil production increment of the global total increment of 85 percent, natural gas accounted for 41. 8%.


6. World electricity demand will continue to grow and by 2050 will double the 2015 level, in which the generation of incremental 72 per cent from non - fossil fuel energy generation.


China's energy in the reference scenario would appear - -


1. China's primary energy demand in 2035 - 2040 time frame will enter the peak plateau, about 56 million tonnes of coal (39. 1 billion tons of oil equivalent).Due to the optimization of energy structure, energy - related carbon dioxide emissions would peak by 2030.


2. China's energy consumption to cleaner, low - carbon, the transition area, as well as the clean energy (natural gas) and non - fossil energy will meet incremental demand and optimize stock, basically by 2050, the formation of coal, oil and gas and non - fossil energy has come into being.


3. up to 2030, petroleum demand due to increased chemical and oil traffic keeps growing, in 2030 will reach 170 million tons of peak levels.


4. The natural gas consumption by 2040 will be in a golden period of development, industry demand for energy will increase by 2035 and 2050 respectively of 6,200 cubic meters and 7,000 cubic meters.


5. up to 2030, China's crude oil output may be maintained at about 120 million tons, while natural gas production will climb steadily, 2035 and 2050 respectively up to 3,000 cubic meters and about 3,500 cubic metres.


6. The power generation in China and a major contribution by non - fossil energy accounted for Prospect during power generation of the total increment of 86. 4%; non - fossil fuel energy generation in 2050 the share will exceed 55 percent.